The recent match between Ssg FA Siauliai Women and MFA Zalgiris Women provided not only a perfect First Half Goals betting opportunity, but also a Match Goals opportunity in the second half. Let’s take a closer look and understand why this was the case.
Odds at start of match
Zalgiris were very strong favourites to win the match at 1/40. They were also, naturally, very strong favourites to score the first goal. These kind of odds indicate that we have a team who are far superior to the opposition and ought to really dominate and score plenty of goals.
Remember, the objective here is to place a bet on one more first half goal being scored when the odds on this become favourable. (We might consider placing a bet on two more goals being scored when these odds are favourable, but this only happens when the stronger team are exhibiting a special level of dominance.)
In either case, we will only place a bet if the stronger team are dominating in the manner we require. In order to determine this, we must pay close attention to the in-play stats as the first half progresses.
Let’s see how things stood after eight minutes.
Stats at 08:00
Eight minutes in and Zalgiris Women are really dominating. They have made a really impressive 17 dangerous attacks and already have had 2 shots on target. Siauliai Women are just doing their best to cope with the onslaught. The have not made a single dangerous attack and have only enjoyed 17% possession. This is exactly what we want to be seeing.
It is always worth keeping an eye on the Fulltime and 1st goal (or next goal) odds. You want to see these staying sufficiently short and similar to what they were when the match commenced. This is a good indicator that the stronger team is still expected to dominate and score.
In the case of Zalgiris, their Fulltime odds have remained as they were when the match started and they are 1/20 to score the first goal, which are shorter than the opening odds. This is a positive sign.
Stats at 13:00
Five minutes on and Zalgiris have had another shot on target and scored. They are continuing to dominate in terms of attack and possession. Odds on there being Over 3.5 First Half Goals are now 10/11.
You want to now see Zalgiris continue to attack with the same level of intensity and to continue to have shots on target. If this happens, it is very likely that more goals will follow.
Stats at 21:00
Over the span of seven minutes, Zalgiris make a further 22 dangerous attack. They have also, very importantly, had two further shots on target. A second goal seems imminent.
Let’s take a look at First Half Goals odds at this point. Over 2.5 First Half Goals odds are now 8/11. Although I usually hold out for odds on there being one further first half goal becoming 1/2, in this case I would consider it very probable that there will be (at least) two more first half goals. This is based on the level of dominance Zalgiris are demonstrating, the number of shots on target, the fact they have already scored and the amount of time remaining in the half. Taking all these factors into consideration, it seems very likely that Zalgiris will score another two first half goals at this point.
The other odds worth considering here are the 1st Half Asian Handicap -1.0,-1.5 for Zalgiris. With these odds, if Zalgiris score another two goals, you win. However, if they only score one more goal, half your stake will be refunded.
Stats at 25:00
As anticipated, Zalgiris score again – a penalty in the 25th minute. A third goal now seems a sure bet.
Let’s take a look at how the odds now stand.
Odds on there being at least two more goals in the first half are now 1/1. But I would not bet on there being two more goals at this point. I will wait for odds on there being one more first half goal to become 1/2 and place a further bet.
Odds at 33:00
Zalgiris keep the pressure on, which is exactly what we want to be seeing. They make another 10 dangerous attacks between the 25th and the 32nd minute (more than one dangerous attack per minute played).
Let’s take this opportunity to look at where the shots on target are originating. This is an important consideration. Remember, not all shots on target are equal. Ideally you want these to be occurring close to or inside the penalty box.
In the case of Zalgiris, as you can see from the above, two of their six shots came from just outside or just inside the box. Three were from distance and one was a penalty. Ideally, you would like to be seeing a greater number of these shots originating closer to goal.
Let’s take a look at how the First Half Goals odds are now looking. As we can see below, odds on there being another first half goal (i.e., Over 2.5 First Half Goals) are now 1/2 (1.5). These are the odds I typically hold out for. In this case I would say they are very much worth taking.
The Third Goal
Zalgiris score their third goal in the 39th minute and both our bets win.
As we can see from the above, Zalgiris have maintained the same level of pressure throughout the half and have had three further shots on target since the 32nd minute.
A fourth goal is scored in the 42nd minute. It is always a very positive sign when further goals are scored after your bet has been won. It indicates just how solid the opportunity was.
The halftime stats, as you can see below, are very impressive.
Let’s take a look at where the shots on target originated from.
As we can see from the above, as the half progressed, Zalgiris were getting shots in from much closer to the box – a further sign of the pressure they were putiing Siauliai under.
Second Half Opportunity
With the level of dominance shown by Zalgiris in the first half, it is worth following the second half to see if they maintain the pressure and continue to press for goals. It’s important to remember that there are no guarantees that a team who dominated in the first half and scored plenty of goals will do the same in the second half. We need to pay close attention to the InPlay stats to determine if an opportunity exists.
Zalgiris continue to dominate in terms of possession and attacks in the second half. They also have a very impressive 7 further shots on target in the first 30 mins of the half, scoring twice.
In these scenarios, it is often the case that the stronger, dominant team will score in the final ten minutes of the games (especially if the stats indicate that they are still pressing for further goals).
Zalgiris score their seventh goal in the 78th minute.
Let’s take a look at the time gaps between the second half goals. As we can see below, Zalgiris scored early in the half, but there is quite a gap between the 6th and 7th goals.
But with the level of dominance they are demonstrating, coupled with the fact that they have just scored, we can expect another goal from Zalgiris before the end of the half.
In the case of this match, I would favour taking the odds on Zalgiris scoring the next (8th) goal over waiting for Match goals Over 7.5 becoming 1/2 (1.5). The reason for this being that you are allowing a greater amount of time for your bet to be successful. Such a bet should only be taken, however, when the stronger team are utterly dominating and you can be almost certain that the opposition will not score.
As we can see from the below, odds on Zalgiris scoring the next goal become 1/2 in the 81st minute. I place a bet on this outcome.
And within seconds, they score!
Although I would have expected them to go on a score another after this, they don’t, and the match ends 0:8.
