Smena Kazan v Dinamo-18 Kazan

Having a strategy when it comes to football betting is vital, if you are serious about making money from football betting, as this match perfectly illustrates.

There are not many matches these days, but this one presented itself as something of an opportunity. The opening Fulltime odds were exactly what I look for, with Smena Kazan being very strong favourites to win at 1/25. But the First Goal odds were longer than I thought they would be, being only 1/6 for Smena Kazan to score the opening goal. If you are familiar with my Strategy, you will know that when it comes to selecting matches that, we want to be seeing odds of at least 1/6 on the stronger team scoring the first goal, but ideally they should be much shorter than this.

Stats at 05:00

Let’s see what the InPlay stats at the end of the fifth minute showed.

Smena Kazan are attacking strongly, which is exactly what we want to be seeing. They have made six dangerous attacks and have had one shot on target. It is not ideal that Dinamo-18 have been allowed to make two dangerous attacks and have also had a shot on target. We want to see the stronger team being more dominant than this, if we are going to place a bet on there being one more goals in the first half when the odds on this happening become 1/2.

Stats at 10:00

By the end of the tenth minute, Smena Kazan are looking pretty good. They have made eleven dangerous attacks, had three shots on target and scored the opening goal (a penalty in the ninth minute). But the odds on them scoring the next goal are fluctuating between 2/9 and 2/11, which for me is a warning sign that this is not to be considered an opportunity. We want to be seeing these next goal odds for the stronger team remain at least as short as they were when the match commenced.

It’s always worth noting where the shots on target are originating from. As I’ve said before, not all shots on target are equal. We want to ideally be seeing shots originating inside the opposition’s box, or, at least, on the very edge of this. As we can see from the screenshot below, Smena Kazan have had one from inside the box and one on the edge. The third shot on target was the penalty that produced the first goal.

Stats at 15:00

At the fifteenth minute mark, Smena Kazan have ticked some important boxes when it comes to the Strategy: they have had three shots on target and made more than 15 dangerous attacks. But the odds on them scoring the next goal remain longer than we want them to be. They are still fluctuating between 2/9 and 2/11. If we are going to be placing a bet on there being one more goal in the first half when the odds on this happening are 1/2, we want to be seeing shorter odds on the dominant team scoring the next goal.

Stats at 20:00

By the 21st minute I have written this match off as an opportunity to place a bet on there being one more goal in the first half when the odds on this happening become 1/2. There are three reasons for this:

  1. Smena Kazan are not attacking with the the kind of consistency and intensity we want to be seeing from the dominant side. They have only made 18 dangerous attacks by the end of the 20th minute. (We want to be seeing at least 20 at this point).
  2. Smena Kazan have not had a further shot on target since they scored their penalty.
  3. Odds on Smena Kazan scoring the next goal remain too long, being 1/5 at this point in the game.

And so, when the odds on there being one more goal in the first half become 1/2, I leave them alone and don’t place a bet. This happens during the 27th minute, when the odds on Smena Kazan scoring the next goal have further lengthened to 2/9.

When the odds on there being at least one more goal in the first half become 1/2, Smena Kazan have only made 20 dangerous attacks. They have also not had another shot on target since scoring the penalty in the 10th minute. They are just not performing in the dominant manner that we require if we are going to take this bet.

Our decision is justified

As the half progresses, our decision is justified. At the end of the 30th minute, Smena Kazan have only made 23 dangerous attacks. They have also not had another shot on target.

By the end of the 35th minute, things have barely changed. Smena Kazan’s dangerous attacks stand at 26 and their total shots on target remain at 3.

At the end of the 40th minute, things remain much the same. Over the course of five minutes, Smena Kazan have only managed to make two dangerous attacks and still fail to have another shot on target.

By the end of the first half, our decision to not place a bet on there being one more goal in the first half is entirely justified. The in-play stats just did not conform with our criteria.

Conclusion

This match perfectly illustrates the importance and value of having a strategy when it comes to football betting. Having a pre-established set of criteria that you bring to bear on any match you consider a potential opportunity for placing a profitable bet takes the guesswork out of your decision making. You know what you are looking for before the game even commences. If the In-play stats correspond with what you are looking for, you place a bet. If they don’t correspond, you leave it and wait for the then next opportunity to come along. It is the consistent application of a successful strategy that leads to profit. When you have such a strategy that you know works, you simple apply it and reap the rewards.


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