Ferencvarosi TC v Kaposvari Rakoczi (14 March 2020)

This was an encounter that ticked almost all the boxes, and delivered. Let’s begin with the opening odds. We are looking for one team to be strong favourites to win the match, so the stronger team’s Fulltime Result odds need to be at least 1/6.

In this case, the odds on Ferencvarosi winning the match are 1/12, which is perfect. The second odds we must look at before we can consider this match an opportunity are the First Goal odds. Again, we want to see the stronger team be at least 1/6 to score the first goal. In this case, Ferencvarosi are 1/8, which is perfect.

Ferencvarosi begin the match attacking hard, which is just what we want to see from the stronger team. By the tenth minute they have made 16 dangerous attacks, more than one a minute. They have also had a shot on target.

By the all-important 15th minute, Ferencvarosi have made 30 dangerous attacks and had 3 shots on target. This meets with the criteria we have established for the strategy.

Now, ideally we want to see a goal scored by the dominant team before the odds on there being at least one more goal in the first half become 1/2. In this instance, however, Ferencvarosi do not score before this happens. However, they continue to attack in a consistent and strong manner, utterly dominating the match in this regard. 

The odds on there being at least one goal scored in the first half become 1/2 in the 25th minute. Ferencvarosi’s odds on scoring the first goal of the match remain sufficiently short, as do the odds on them winning the match. This is important. If either of these odds had lengthened, becoming longer than 1/6, we would have to dismiss this as an opportunity. However, the fact that the odds remain sufficiently short and Ferencvarosi are still attacking and dominating the match in the required manner, we can justify placing a bet.

It takes until the 38th minute, but Ferencvarosi’s attacks finally pay off and they score. At this point, they have made 56 dangerous attacks to Kaposvari’s 6 and had four shots on target.