FC Brno v SK Unicov

This European Friendly on the 13th May looked promising. FC Brno were very strong favourites to win the match at 1/14. They were also strong favourites to score the first goal. Would an opportunity to place a bet on First Half Goals arise? It all comes down to the in-play stats. Let’s look at how the first half developed.

Stats at 05:00

Five minutes into the match and FC Brno are just about dominating. They have made five dangerous attacks to SK Unicov’s two. But they have not had a shot on target yet.

I always advise paying close attention to the Fulltime Result and 1st Goal odds, especially during the first 15 minutes. You really want to see both remaining shorter than 1/6.

The Fulltime Result odds for FC Brno prior to kick-off were 1/14. Five minutes into the game and they have lengthened to 1/6. 1st Goal odds have also lengthened from 2/11 to 1/4. I generally take these as signs that this is not the ideal opportunity.

FC Brno score the opening goal in the seventh minute with their first shot on target. Let’s see if they can now demonstrate a greater dominance and if their Fulltime Result and Next Goal odds will change to reflect this.

Twelve minutes into the first half and FC Brno are making a decent number of dangerous attacks. I like to see the dominant team making at least one per minute played, so FC Brno are fulfilling this criteria. However, they are not hitting the target, despite attacking and winning numerous corners.

Stats at 15:00

For me, the status of play at the end of the 15th minute is of great importance. I have found that there are key indicators in the stats at this point which tell if there is going to be an opportunity to place a bet on First Half Goals or not.

FC Brno are looking strong in many regards:

  • They have made 17 dangerous attacks
  • They have scored a goal
  • They have won six corners
  • They are continuing to attack and dominate

However, my one concern is that they have had only one shot on target. I want to see the stronger team clearly demonstrating an ability to penetrate the opposition’s defense and threaten the goal. This lack of shots is reflected in the 2nd Goal odds for FC Brno, which has been hovering around 1/4. As I’ve said, I ideally want these odds to be 1/6 or shorter.

Twenty minutes into the first half and things are proceeding in much the same manner. FC Brno continue to dominate in attack but are not having any shots on target.

2nd Goal odds for FC Brno are getting a little shorter, which is positive. But due to the lack of shots on target, coupled with the fact that next goal odds are not 1/6 or shorter, I have all but written this game off as an opportunity to place a bet when odds on there being at least one more first half goals becomes 1/2.

FC Brno score in the 23rd minute with their second shot on target. This doesn’t alter my perspective on the game too much and I remain doubtful of there being a compelling reason to place a bet when the First Half Goal odds become right.

Odds on FC Brno scoring the 3rd Goal have now become 1/6. They are continuing to attack and are winning corners. If they score a third goal before the 30th minute, it would be worth entertaining the possibility of placing a bet on there being one more goal scored in the first half.

27 minutes into the half and FC Brno continue to attack.

Odds on FC Brno scoring the 3rd Goal have now further shortened to 1/7.

And they do score a third before the 30th minute.

And continue to attack, winning a ninth corner in the 30th minute.

Odds on FC Brno scoring the 4th Goal have further lengthened to 1/16, a reflection of the fact that they have upped the intensity and are scoring every time they have a shot on target.

What is of real interest is where the shots are occurring. As we can see from the screenshot below, each shot has occurred just inside the box, right in front of the goal. This is a very strong sign. As I always say, not all shots on target are equal. You need, when possible, to see where they occur to get a real sense of how threatening they are, especially when a team is not scoring.

Odds on there being Over 3.5 Goals have become 1/2 at this stage and it is decision time. If I want to hold tight to the criteria I have established I will let this opportunity pass. My gut tells me that FC Brno will score again. This is based on the fact that they have scored two goals in the last ten minutes and each goal is coming from similar positions of play, just inside the box. SK Unicov are obviously struggling to defend this area and it is very likely they will concede another.

Which they do, just minutes later, and again the shot is taken from a similar location inside the box.

Let’s see how the first half closes out. FC Brno continue to dominate and win corners.

It is interesting to note that the odds on them scoring the 5th goal have once again lengthened to 2/9, despite the fact that they have scored four and are continuing to attack in a similar manner.

They manage to score one more before the end of the half, closing out the first half with a 5:0 lead.

Again the goal comes from a shot taken in a similar spot to all the rest.

Conclusions

It’s good to see matches are starting to happen again and that the kind of opportunities we are interested in are returning. This match came very close to being a textbook opportunity to place a bet on there being at least one more first half goals when the odds on this happening were 1/2.

Had FC Brno had more shots on target in the first fifteen minutes and if the odds on them scoring the next goal had remained sufficiently short, I would have jumped at this opportunity. But the fact that they only had one shot on target in the opening 20 minutes and the next goal odds kept lengthening, ultimately cast doubt over the quality of the opportunity. My instinct was that FC Brno would score a further goal after the odds on there being Over 3.5 First Half Goals became 1/2, but decided to let the opportunity pass for the reasons just mentioned.

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