Ahal FK Youth v Altyn Asyr FK Youth

This Youth match from 18th May held some promise, with Altyn Asyr reasonably strong favourites to win and to score the first goal. As you know, if you have been following the strategy I use, I look for matches where one team is expected to dominate and score. I then wait for the odds on there being at least one more half time goal to become 1/2. If the in-play stats correspond with the criteria I have set, I place a bet. This strategy has enabled me to consistently make money from football betting.

Let’s see how this match developed and if the in-play stats met the mark.

Stats at 05:00

After five minutes of play, Altyn Asyr are demonstrating something of the dominance that we want to be seeing. They have made five dangerous attacks and have had one shot on target. They have enjoyed 69% of the possession.

Let’s look at how the odds have changed since the match kicked off. Along with the key in-play stats that we will be closely monitoring, the Fulltime Result and 1st Goal (or next goal) odds indicate if this is a going to be a strong opportunity or not.

As you can see from the above, the odds on Altyn Asyr winning the match and the odds on them scoring the first goal have lengthened. Their Fulltime Result odds are now 1/9, whereas they began the match at 1/12, and they are now 1/5 to score the first goal, longer than the opening odds of 1/7.

I don’t like to see either odds for the stronger team being longer than 1/6. The fact that Altyn Asyr are now 1/5 to score the first goal is, therefore, a negative and a sign that this is not an optimum opportunity.

Stats at 10:00

The stats at the end of the tenth minute do not show the kind of dominance I like to see. Altyn Asyr have only made two dangerous attacks since the end of the fifth minute and have had one further shot on target. You want to be seeing the stronger team making at least 10 dangerous attacks at this point. The fact that they have allowed Ahal FK to make two dangerous attacks of their own is also less than ideal.

Let’s take a quick look at the odds at this point in the game. Altyn Asyr’s Fulltime Result odds are 1/8 and they are 1/5 to score the first goal. These are close to the odds I want to be seeing, but, as I have already mentioned, 1st Goal odds of 1/5 are just a little longer than I would like them to be.

Remember, I am not interested in placing a bet on either the Fulltime Result or the 1st Goal. I am simply watching these odds because they indicate, along with the in-play stats, the likelihood of goals being scored by the stronger team later in the half.

I am waiting for the odds on there being at least one more goal in the first half to become 1/2. At this point, as you can see below, the First Half Goal odds are 5/6 for over 1.5 goals. I am waiting for First Half Goals Over 0.5 to become 1/2. Of course, if a goal is scored before these odds come about, I will then be waiting on First Half Goals Over 1.5 to become 1/2.

And, indeed, Altyn Asyr do score, with their third shot on target!

Stats at 15:00

Altyn Asyr have stepped up the intensity of their attacking. They have made five dangerous attacks since the end of the tenth minute and have scored a goal. All very positive. I like to see three shots on target by the end of the fifteenth minute. But I would prefer to be seeing a greater number of dangerous attacks.

The odds on them scoring the next goal have lengthened slightly to 2/9.

Altyn Asyr win a penalty in the 18th minute …

… and score!

Stats at 20:00

Let’s see how the stats and the odds look at the end of the 20th minute.

The number of dangerous attacks by the dominant team are still relatively low. Altyn Asyr have only made two dangerous attacks since the end of the fifteenth minute. Their only shot on target in this period was the penalty.

We are now coming close to the point where odds on there being at least one more first half goals become 1/2. At the moment the First Half Goals Over 3.5 odds are 13/8.

Stats at 25:00

In order for us to be confident placing a bet on there being at least one further goal in the first half when the odds are right, we need to be seeing the stronger team continue to dominate in an aggressive manner. Altyn Asyr are not demonstrating this kind of dominance. As you can see from the screenshot below, Altyn Asyr are currently defending a corner and have only made three further dangerous attacks since the 20th minute.

We are now very close to getting the odds that we favour. First Half Goals Over 2.5 are currently 4/9, a step away from 1/2. The time has come to make a decision!

Odds on Over 2.5 First Half Goals become 1/2

First Half Goals Over 2.5 become 1/2 in the 27th minute.

I do not take the bet because Altyn Asyr have not being demonstrating the kind of intensive, relentless attacking I want to be seeing. The fact that the odds on them scoring the next goal have sat at 1/5 is also not encouraging.

My decision to not take the bet is based on my experience of following countless number of games and assessing the stats and odds. I am not saying that Altyn Asyr will definitely not score a further goal (or that there will be no further goals in the first half). I am simply saying that they have not done enough for me to have the level of confidence I require to take the bet.

Stats at 30:00

Since scoring the second goal, Altyn Asyr have been considerably quieter in terms of attacks.They have not made a single dangerous attack since the end of the 25th minute.

They do, however, manage to score a third goal in the 32nd minute.

Five minutes later, Ahal FK Youth score.

Based on the kind of play we were seeing over the last 15 minutes, I would say that both these goals were quite unpredictable. As I said above, Altyn Asyr were not attacking or showing any real appetite for a third goal. If they had been demonstrating a greater amount of aggressiveness in attack and if their next goal odds had been shorter than 1/5, I would have taken the First Half Goals Over 2.5 bet when it became 1/2.

Nothing much happens for the remainder of the first half. Altyn Asyr make a number of dangerous attacks, but never look like they are going to score.

Conclusions

This is a match that came quite close to being the kind of opportunity I focus on and favour. But in the end, as I have said above, the in-play stats did not show the kind of dominance and aggressiveness I need to be seeing from the stronger team. The fact that Altyn Asyr’s next goal odds hovered around 1/5 was also a negative for me.

As I mentioned above, my interpretation of these odds is based on years of game analysis. I know from experience that matches in which the odds on the stronger team scoring the next goal become 1/5 or longer, have a significantly lower chance of success when it comes to the opportunity I am concerned with.

Remember, if you want to be successful with your betting, you have to abide by the highest possible standards. The strategy I have developed is all about having a set of criteria that will yield a profit if you apply it consistently. If you deviate from what you know works and continuously compromise, you will only lose money in the long run. There are plenty of opportunities where the odds and stats will meet the criteria we have established and there are no excuses for not having the patience to wait for these to come along.

Leave a Comment